Monday, October 20, 2008

State Of The Hot Senate Races

We're 15 days from extending the Democratic majority in the United States Senate and I wanted to bring you up to date on how polling looks in some of the most hotly-contested races. Two of the most exciting are in Georgia and Mississippi, where Democrats are taking a good run at Republican incumbents in races that six months ago I would never have guessed would be this close.

After the disgusting race he ran smearing highly-decorated Vietnam Veteran Max Cleland in 2002, there's not many people higher on the GOP, scumbag food chain than Saxby Chambliss in Georgia and, after serving only one term, he has Democrat Jim Martin taking him to a dead heat with two weeks to go.

The latest trend estimate (of many polls) has it at 45.8 percent for Martin and 45.3 percent for Chambliss.

I would still put this in the column leaning heavily Republican as no matter how low Chambliss may be and how undistinguished a term he's had in the Senate, it takes a lot for Georgians to vote for a Democrat.

In Mississippi, Republican Roger Wicker was appointed on New Year's eve 2007 -- after serving 12 years in the House -- to fill the Senate seat vacated by Trent Lott, who retired on December 18, 2007.

His Democratic opponent, Ronnie Musgrove, is a former Mississippi governor who has made it close in this race. shows it right now as 47.1 percent for Wicker versus 45.6 percent for Musgrove.

Fingers crossed.

Here's the trend estimates for other important races that promise to widen the Democratic Senate edge considerably:


Mark Begich (D) 48.2 percent
Ted Stevens (R) 46.6 percent


Mark Udall (D) 47.2 percent
Bob Schaffer (R) 39.7 percent


Al Franken (D) 39.6 percent
Norm Coleman (R) 37.5 percent

New Mexico

Tom Udall (D) 55.9 percent
Steve Pearce (R) 39.5 percent

New Hampshire

Jeanne Shaheen (D) 48.2 percent
John Sununu (R) 42.0 percent

North Carolina

Kay Hagan (D) 46.5 percent
Elizabeth Dole (R) 41.4 percent


Jeff Merkley (D) 46 percent
Gordon Smith (R) 41 percent